After the election of Barack Obama, a book called “The Emerging Democratic majority” was the talk of the town. Written in 2004 by John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira, the book predicted that the growth of black and “Hispanic” voting blocks as well as the leftward shift among the highly educated will give Democrats a natural permanent majority. November 2008 seemed to be the proof, but the “emerging” majority went bust two years two years down the road with the rise of the Tea party. Demographic shifts are not to be taken lightly, and we might yet hear from that “emerging majority” at some pint in the future. Right now, however, it seems like Barack Obama is trying to see how well he can do while screwing up badly.
BO is weakest on all matters relating to the economy. He probably thought that he’d ram through his agenda, and, given that he took stewardship of the country at the bottom of the recession, the economy would recover on its own. Instead, we are talking of a double dip and the unemployment rate hovers over 8%, and no President was ever reelected with unemployment numbers that high. This one also ran up a potentially devastating deficit. Please visit King Shamus to see the chart that should win Republicans this election. Voters who do not follow the news might not have heard that for the first time in history Canada surpassed the US in household wealth (as they might not know about Fast and Furious or Solyndra), but they still feel uncertain about their and their kids’ future.
Obama has a strange relationship with the Democratic base. On the one hand, he’s pandering, and everyone knows it. He declared that he’s “evolving” back to his earlier position of personally supporting gay marriage, only he won’t do anything about it. Hollywood posers ate it up, but the polls didn’t move. Gay marriage is supposed to be a hip issue with gays, young voters and miscellaneous social liberals, but maybe not at the time of economic uncertainty.
On the other hand, Jews constitute an important voter and donor base of Democratic party. Yet he demands that Israel returns to the ’67 borders, slights Benjamin Netanyahu and gives away details of a possible Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear facility. Result: Jews might deliver Florida to Romney.
This administration sure has a way to ensure that the opposition will make it to the polls. Aside from treatment of Israel, a partial list of his offenses includes ramming through Obamacare, record deficits, poor economy, complete disregard for the rule of law, enemies lists and the clandestine Fast and Furious. It’s a very partial list, to be sure. There is something to add to it every week, if not twice a week. Then he goes out and insults middle of the road voters with comments like “you didn’t build that”, and lets miscellaneous little errors pile up , like getting Joe Biden to campaign or having Vogue editor Anna Wintour record a campaign video.
BO is most certainly not running your typical Presidential campaign. When all is said and done, we’ll see how low his support can drop. If Romney doesn’t win by a landslide, however, we should panic a little.